Federer not a favourite vs Nadal
Written by Barry Cowan    Monday, 26 January 2009 16:13    PDF Print E-mail

Roger FedererWhat an era this is for men’s tennis. There was so much anticipation leading up to the first major of 2009 and it hasn’t disappointed.

I can’t recall the last 16 at a slam having had a stronger line-up, with 12 of the top 14 players remaining and the ‘big four’ still on course to clash in the semis.

The men’s event is gathering momentum and yesterday the bottom half of the draw produced two epic quarter-finals with Roger Federer coming back from the dead to beat Tomas Berdych and Novak Djokovic outlasting former finalist Marcos Baghdatis.

Federer has in the past showed real character to dig out tough matches when not playing at his best, a quality that is often overlooked. He did well to recover against Berdych after playing so poorly for two sets.

Djokovic played at an extremely high level to beat the rejuvenated Baghdatis. A rematch of last year’s semi between Federer and Djokovic now looks certain to happen and Federer will seek revenge against the defending champion and hope to move a step closer to equalling Pete Sampras’ record of 14 slams.

I wouldn’t make Federer favourite against either Rafael Nadal or Andy Murray in the final, however, because at this moment he is lacking the necessary big-match confidence to come forward to the net in pressure situations which results in him missing more forehands than usual. This is essential if you are to get the better of Murray or Nadal.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is also worth a mention. The athletic Frenchman is looking really good and he’s the real deal when conditions suit him. This is certainly the case in Melbourne where he can play with confidence.

His brand of attacking, high-risk tennis can worry anyone and a possible quarter-final with Murray will be well worth watching!

Murray, the form player and joint favourite for the title with Federer with most bookies, has had a stress-free first week, but the matches will become tougher for him.

As for Nadal, he has been awesome and his appetite to improve appears to be as strong as ever. Nadal can remain among the greats for years to come because his game keeps evolving as he continues to play more and more aggressive on all surfaces.

I reckon Nadal will beat Fernando Gonzalez in tonight’s fourth round match. Gonzalez will find it hard to play at the incredibly high level he reached in what was the match of the tournament so far when he got past Frenchman Richard Gasquet in round three.

Gael Monfils has also been very impressive and should be feeling confident after beating Nadal two weeks ago in Doha. Over five sets, however, I would expect the result to be different should they meet in the last eight.

As for the women, the tournament keeps throwing up massive surprises. The big story in Oz has been the re-emergence of Jelena Dokic. Her incredible run to the quarters continues to surprise everyone and her confidence will be so high that she will believe anything is now possible.

Dinara Safina awaits Dokic in the last eight after once again producing a miracle comeback in a grand slam when she recovered from 2-5 in the third set to beat Alize Cornet on Saturday.

The women’s game is full of shocks and the first week was no different with the unconventional Marion Bartoli playing sparkling tennis to beat world No.1 Jelena Jankovic.

Ana Ivanovic continues to fall from grace at an alarming rate and Venus Williams was well below her best in the biggest upset of the first seven days when she was dumped out by diminutive Spaniard Carla Suarez Navarro.

The favourite before the event was Serena Williams and, even though she has been complaining about her form during the first week, she has a track record in Grand Slams of getting better with each match. I believe nothing can stop her from winning her 10th major, probably by beating Safina in the final.

 

 

 
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