Australia: Is this Murray's Moment?
Written by David Sammel    Tuesday, 20 January 2009 02:03    PDF Print E-mail

Men

In my mind there are four guys who can win the Oz Open: Nadal, Murray, Federer and Djokovic in that order. I put Nadal as slight favourite only because he has won five Slams and Murray has yet to win one. I also maintain that Nadal and Murray have Federer in the head and that it will be very difficult for Federer to beat either of them in a semi or a final. Therefore it is not unreasonable to say that a possibility exists that Federer will not equal Sampras's 14 Slams. There were two differences when Sampras came back to win the US Open after two years without a Slam win:- (1) Sampras served and volleyed so did not have to grind out wins from the baseline; and

(2) no player had him in the head with 4 or 5 wins against him in a row.

There is a real issue with the Federer forehand volley in that he does not step behind the ball which is the subject of this month's tip. His reliance on hand skills makes him vulnerable at the net which I believe feeds back to his forehand which gets a tad 'slappy' because he is looking for the big hit or winner as he is reluctant to go forward when it is tight. Also the ability of Murray and Nadal to make Roger play so many backhands, Murray because of his early backhand cross and Nadal with the height and jump on his cross-court forehand, give Federer a tough problem to solve.

If he plays his backhand line and gets the shorter forehand he has to be comfortable approaching the net with the line forehand. If he commits to sorting his forehand volley and improving his footwork at the net then I do believe he will be in the hunt for a few more Slams. Murray is totally committed to improvement and I know from Jez how hard he worked the off season so he is certainly going to be very difficult to beat in any department. I have a feeling we are in for a Murray-Nadal humdinger in the semi-final with Roger being a little happy that neither are his side of the draw. Djokovic will be tough if he finds form and the dark horses are Nalbandian, Tsonga (if fit and playing) with Del Potro, Cilic and Gulbis all dangerous floaters.

Women

If the Williams sisters find form they will be the ones to beat but right now the women's event is a lottery. There are seven women who can win the event - Jankovic, Ivanovic, Dementieva, Safina, the Williams sisters and my outside pick Mauresmo. I think she can have one more big year if she stays healthy. There will also be a couple of young players who can break through and cause an upset - Kvitova, Cibulkova, Radwanska, Wozniacki and Cornet. There are always surprises at the Oz Open and I think Dementieva is due a Slam and she is the form player. Jankovic is looking strong and can justify her No1 ranking with the title.

MCTA Group

You can read all about the start of the year on the new

www.mctagroup.com site. Latest signing Christina Mathis made an immediate impact by qualifying and reaching the quarters in the Jersey 10k in November and winning a senior tournament in Salzburg. Last week she made quarters in Sweden and the doubles final in a junior ITF event climbing to 240 in the rankings.

Stefi Boffa has opened her 2009 account by reaching semis in singles and doubles in the Glasgow 10k with a solid performance.

Unfortunately Anna Fitzpatrick is still experiencing pain in her foot even though scans show the stress fracture is completely healed. We hope to have a diagnosis next week when she sees Bill Ribbans, the highly respected surgeon and expert in ankle and foot injuries.

 
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